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Download full report Download tables Highlights The outlook for global oil demand growth is largely unchanged at 1. Oil demand is slowing in several non-OECD countries, as the impact of higher year-on-year prices is amplified by currency devaluations and slowing economic activity.
Global oil supplies are growing rapidly, as record output from Saudi Arabia, Russia and the US more than offsets declines from Iran and Venezuela. October output was up 2.
Non-OPEC output will grow by 2. The call on OPEC crude falls to After a refine products stocks build of 0. OECD commercial stocks rose counter-seasonally by In 3Q18, stocks increased by OECD holdings are likely to exceed the 5-year average when October data is finalised. Brent and WTI futures curves have flipped to contango.
Except for gasoline and naphtha, product prices did not match the drop in crude prices. Heeding the warnings In last month's Report, we noted that since the middle of the year oil supply had increased sharply, with gains in the Middle East, Russia and the United States more than compensating for falls in production in Iran, Venezuela and elsewhere.
Already, OECD stocks have increased for four months in a row, with products back above the five-year average. In the August edition of this Report we described the replacement of Iranian and Venezuelan barrels as "challenging", and that there was a danger of prices rising too high too fast.
Russia's crude output has hit a new record of In our view, this was a dangerous "red zone" and it justified calls for producers to raise output. Lower prices are clearly a benefit to consumers, especially hard-pressed ones in developing countries that are suffering from the additional handicap of weak national currencies.
For now, forecasts of oil demand growth remain solid with an increase of 1. We should also recognise the interests of the producers. For many countries, even though their output might have increased, prices falling too far are unwelcome.
Ministers from the Vienna Agreement countries will meet in early December, but we have already seen suggestions from leading producers that supply could be cut soon if customers, seeing ample supply, rising stocks, and slumping refining margins, request lower volumes.
Although the oil market appears to be more relaxed than it was a few weeks ago, and there might be a sense of "mission accomplished" that producers have met the challenge of replacing lost barrels, such is the volatility of events that rising stocks should be welcomed as a form of insurance, rather than a threat.
The United States remains committed to reducing Iranian oil exports to zero from the 1. The response to the call by the IEA and others to increase production is a reminder that the oil industry works best when it works together.caninariojana.com valuation forms a crucial part of our stock analysis.
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